Syria: the two sides of President Assad

Turnout, however, is likely to be affected by one or two small problems. The citizens of Homs, Hama, Deira, Idlib and many other towns may find it difficult to reach a polling station because their government is, to varying degrees, trying to kill them; and at least 7,000 voters will not be turning out at all, because they are dead.

The killings have dramatically changed the equation. The constitutional change, which was an early demand of the opposition movement, is now scorned by the protesters, for whom only Assad?s removal, criminal trial and execution will do. Turnout today will still, however, be interesting as a sign of who supports the regime, or can be forced to support it.

One interpretation of Assad?s reforms is that he is sincere, but myopic. The other is that it is a sop designed to give his Russian backers diplomatic cover. The cynical interpretation was bolstered when Assad?s forces launched their latest, and most savage, assault on Homs on the very eve of a UN Security Council vote to condemn the regime.

Even the fairly mild resolution before the Security Council ? pressing Assad to concede at least some unspecified powers to a deputy, pending the outcome of talks ? was vetoed by Russia. Assad appears to be betting that the international community will be unable to help his suffering people.

On that, he may well be right. Not for nothing did he tell me that his country was the Middle East?s ?fault line? and that ?meddling? in it ?would create an earthquake? another Afghanistan?. There is no doubt that that prospect looms large in the minds of Western policymakers.

In January, he boasted: ?For us, the West is important. But the West today is not like the West a decade ago. The world is changing, and new powers emerging. There are alternatives. We can swim on our own and alongside our friends and brothers, and there are plenty of them.?

Without international help, the Syrian opposition is not yet capable of succeeding on its own. The Syrian National Council, the main external opposition group, has failed to build close enough links with activists inside Syria, and is itself split. ?Assad is becoming stronger with our weakness,? said Haitham Manna, a prominent Syrian dissident based in Cairo. ?If the opposition doesn?t unify, the regime will gain strength.?

This month?s shelling of Homs is part of what appears to be a new security plan, to smash the opposition with brutality. Official newspapers have spoken of shifting away from what they claimed was the previous policy of ?restraint?.

In another sign of the regime?s cynicism, the Homs attacks were launched on the 30th anniversary of the most devastating massacre in Syria?s recent history ? the 1982 shelling and bombing of the rebellious town of Hama, flattening the old city and killing at least 10,000 people. The action, by Bashar?s father, Hafez, pretty much ended all opposition to the Assad family for the next 20 years. The regime clearly intends the parallel to be drawn.

Assad knows he still holds many of the cards. Unlike in Libya, there have been no significant defections from the armed forces or the diplomatic corps. Syrian ambassadors around the world remain loyal. Damascus is still relatively quiet, though there have been demonstrations and security force killings in the suburbs. Some towns controlled by the rebels, such as Zabadani, appear to have been retaken. Nineteen of the 22 Arab states now shun him, but he still has vital support from Lebanon, Iraq, Hezbollah ? and Iran.

Assad may hope to crush the opposition, but his forces are stretched, and have already been rebuffed from the rebel town of Idlib. Nor can Assad ?do a Hama? without the West effectively being forced to intervene.

The likelihood is that Assad?s ?earthquake? will develop, not through foreign military intervention, but of its own accord. Arab Gulf states are already providing the opposition with more weapons. And the role of Turkey, which has turned sharply against its former ally, will be crucial. A Benghazi-style enclave could still be created around Idlib, which is not far from the Turkish border. Syria may degenerate into an Arab version of Bosnia, making some sort of Western intervention inevitable.

Assad can, perhaps, be diverted from his path if the Russians, his principal supporters, can be persuaded to change sides. As in Kosovo, they could be central to a deal, but it would have to include some kind of escape route for Assad.

Interestingly, Assad has not yet been subject to a Gaddafi-style indictment from the International Criminal Court. This may be a sign that he could still be offered an escape hatch. Otherwise, Syria?s future looks dark indeed.

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/568324/s/1cf0b8ad/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cnews0Cworldnews0Cmiddleeast0Csyria0C910A56380CSyria0Ethe0Etwo0Esides0Eof0EPresident0EAssad0Bhtml/story01.htm

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